Tuesday, January 19, 2010

By Dale Hildebrant

Six years ago, in 2004, Monsanto cited low profit potential as the reason for discontinuing its work in wheat breeding. However, the hope that Monsanto has a renewed interest in wheat breeding was confirmed at the Prairie Grains Conference in Grand Forks in mid-December. There, Sean Gardner, the lead on Monsanto's wheat research, said present plans call for Monsanto's expertise in conventional and marker-assisted breeding to develop better-yielding varieties using the WestBred germplasm as a foundation.

Gardner used projections for an increase in the world's population as one of the arguments for the need for increased research and development in wheat breeding which will result in more productivity from wheat. He noted that by the year 2030 the demand for wheat will increase by 40 percent. During that same time the demand for corn and soybeans will grow by 76 percent and 125 percent, respectively, he added.

This demand must be met in the face of less producing land per capita. By 2030 it's estimated there will be just half an acre of ag producing land for each person. This compares to 1.1 acres per person back in 1960 and about 0.65 acres today.

“We are going to be required to produce more with less and do it sustainably,” Gardner said. “We've set ourselves a challenge, which is quite simple but quite compelling: We want to produce more, conserving more and improving the lives of farmers.”

According to Gardner, wheat is one of the world's most important global crops and will continue to be because of the following points:

- Wheat is planted on more than 555 million acres worldwide, making it the most widely grown crop in the world;

- In seven of the last 10 years, the world has consumed more wheat than it produced;

- More foods are made with wheat than any other cereal grain; and

- Over the next 10 years USDA projects global wheat trade will increase by 22 million tonnes or 18 percent.

Despite this optimistic prediction for wheat, acres continue to decline in the U.S., according to USDA figures presented by Gardner. In 1981 almost 81 million acres of wheat were planted. That figure has seen a consistent downward trend, with slightly over 55 million acres in 2008.

Instead, wheat acres have been shifted to soybean and corn production, because both crops offer a larger profit potential because of technological advances, according to Gardner.

“Farmers are business people and they make rational economic decisions,” he said. “And if you are going to make better returns on crops other than wheat and you can grow them, then that's what you are going to doŠand the trends we have seen in wheat acres is a result of that.”

Gardner noted that there has been a real “drought” in terms of technology applied to wheat when compared to other crops. As a result, many of the stakeholders in the wheat industry have approached Monsanto and other technology companies asking when they were going to start investing in wheat research again.

At the present time Monsanto invests between $2-$3 million a day, or $1 billion annually, on research and development in mainly corn, soybeans and cotton, according to Gardner. Some of this research can also be used in wheat research.

Monsanto's goal for their principal crops - soybeans, corn and cotton - is to double the yields between the years 2000 and 2030 and use a third less inputs per unit of production. This process would not only depend on plant breeding and biotech to achieve the goal, but also agronomic practices such as fertilization, using seed treatment and tillage practices.

“This is achievable and we are more or less committed to it for corn, soybeans and cotton,” Gardner said. “But we are having to rethink about it for wheat. I'm not sure when we will make the call for wheat, but I would like to have wheat as part of that commitment.”

Biotechnology in wheat won't be the first results from a renewed and expanded research effort. In fact. that phase might be a few years down the road, he said.

Monsanto plans to conduct research and development on two distinct and parallel paths - one focusing on breeding techniques that will result in better wheat varieties, and the other on the biotech path, with the results of this research to be incorporated into the better varieties developed on the breeding pathway.

“What we need to get you guys to vote with your pocketbooks is to have the best combination of genetics and biotech,” he said. “We think the two are inextricably linked, no matter what crop you are working on. We proved equal weight for having great hybrids or varieties and also have great biotech to put inside them.”

Gardner said he believes biotech in wheat will come in a much different form than it did for corn, where there was one trait introduced one year, and perhaps another trait the following year. Instead, the biotech traits in wheat will come much faster.

“I believe that the first biotech wheat products that you have a chance to grow will have multiple traits in them,” he said. “I also believe there will be intense competition and you will have the chance to buy multiple biotech traits from several different companies.

“Our clear focus on wheat biotech efforts is on yield and stress - the yield genes, stress genes, nitrogen efficiency use genes and drought genes. These are the genes we have already been discovering and putting into corn.”

Gardner said there is a lot of commonality between corn and wheat and Monsanto believes many of the traits developed for corn can be deployed in wheat.

“Eventually we hope to come with great biotech traits on top of great genetics in wheat,” he said.

But even with this commonality, Gardner doesn't expect there will be biotech traits ready to be released in wheat for another seven to 12 years and it will probably be closer to the back end of that time frame.

Monsanto's plans call for a close partnership with the land grant universities and their wheat breeding programs. At the present time, the majority of the wheat acres seeded in the U.S. are planted to varieties developed at those institutions. Gardner said that influence needs to be continued in any wheat breeding program.

“Our belief is that if the universities' breeding programs continue to thrive and the applied technology associated with it, then it's positive for the whole industry, and for us and the growers,” he said. “In order for biotech in wheat to be successful, the land grant universities need to be successful as well. Our approach to those universities will be that we try to partner with them.”

When asked if Monsanto and others have thought about the export ramifications that might happen with the adaptation of biotechnology in wheat, Gardner answered that factor is very much on the minds of those working on biotech wheat.

“Everyone's nervous, but there is a real willingness to accept that,” he said. “If we do nothing, by the time we decide that it is the right time to do something, we will be 15 years behind where we need to be.

“There are two things that give me hope. The first is I have talked to quite a few people, and in Japan specifically, you have the senior guy who sits in the front of the room and is very negative on biotech traits. But then you talk to some of the young up and comers and they will tell you ... that actually they believe this is the way to go,” he continued.

“The other thing is we have 10 years to think about this and a lot can occur in 10 years. Think about how many more soybeans you grow here than you did 10 years ago. When we introduce drought resistance corn to the market we are going to see corn acres increase dramatically in areas that typically grow wheat, so we might not even be close to 55 million acres of wheat at that time and the export market may not be so significant.

“So candidly, we don't have the problem solved and it will be an industry challenge for the next decade and I think if we concentrate on developing traits that bring sustainable yields that are done on partnerships - that's the best way to think of it.”

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