DEMAND for canola oil is expected to grow by 50 per cent by 2020, a leading scientist says.
Pioneer Hi-Bred global canola research director David Charne said the world was producing about 58 million tonnes of oilseed brassicas - which included canola, rapeseed and oilseed mustards - but demand was expected to hit 90 million tonnes by the end of the decade.
Dr Charne said about 20 per cent of the growth required to meet the demand would come from an increased sowing area but the rest had to come from better productivity.
"That means the growth in yield needs to be about 3 per cent a year," he said.
Australia is producing its biggest crop ever this season - 2.5 million tonnes - mostly as a result of good seasonal conditions prompting an increase in the area sown.
Despite that, Australia is a relatively small producer, accounting for about 4 per cent of an estimated 58.3 million tonnes globally.
Dr Charne said Europe produced about 20.8 million tonnes, China and North America 14 million tonnes each, and India seven million tonnes.
He said the total area sown in the world was 32 million hectares, with the farmgate value of the global crop about $60 billion.
So is a 50 per cent growth in production within the next nine years achievable or sustainable?
"We're producing 70 per cent more canola today than we were 10 years ago," Dr Charne said.
"That's quite remarkable.
"It's been mostly through growth in the area sown."
Dr Charne said a lot of the emphasis would be placed on genetic improvement to reach a 90 million-tonne crop by 2020.
Although most of the improvement to date was through plant breeding and introducing genetically modified and non-GM traits, molecular breeding would be the "next revolution".
He said molecular breeding involved using genotypic information - based on DNA - to make smarter decisions to fast-track improvements.
Global germplasm exchange between research groups in different parts of the world was also becoming an important area for genetic improvement.
"We are just beginning to exploit this area on a global level," he said. "This is really a gold mine for breeders."
Dr Charne said the focus of canola breeding in the next decade would be on areas such as expanding herbicide resistance, changing crop stature and improving disease resistance, harvestability, stress tolerance and yield quality.
He said changing the crop stature involved developing semi-dwarf hybrids to reduce plant heights by about 20 per cent.
